Month: September 2024

Week 3 EPA Notes + Remarkable Insights

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We are three weeks into the NFL season and there are five teams still with a perfect record. The Bills have re-inserted themselves into the Super Bowl conversation while Sam Darnold and the Vikings continues to crush on the offense. Let’s take a look at those QBs and the best ones by EPA per dropback this season.

If you could crown a MVP in Week 3 of the season, it would go to Josh Allen. Similarly, Jayden Daniels would be awarded rookie of the year, especially after his performance against the Bengals. Caleb Williams is off to a slow start with the Bears and Trevor Lawrence is hoping (and expecting) a big turnaround sooner rather than later. Who will fall on this list and who will rise by the end of the season?

How much are your players adding when being targets this season? Well after Jauan Jennings performance Sunday afternoon, he leads the NFL in EPA per target. While he might not stay atop the list, the 49ers still have the ability to be efficient without their best weapons.

De’Von Achane is the first running back on the list and brings a great receiving option out of the backfield in Miami.

It is always interesting to see that three quarterbacks lead the league in EPA per rushing attempt, but here we are. J.K. Dobbins is the first non-QB on the list and his efficiency behind that Chargers line is something to behold. The Lions RBs are in a great position and Derrick Henry charges up the leaderboards after having a monster day against the Dallas Cowboys.

What are some thing you noticed on the leaderboard this week?

Let’s take a look at some Remarkable notes to start the 2024 NFL season:

  • The Commanders have scored on 64% of their drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.
  • The Dolphins have scored on 21% of their drives this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 38%.
  • The Bills are averaging 2.4 drives per TD this season — best Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.0.
  • The Bills defense has allowed a passer rating of just 24.9 first read passes (31 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 91.4.
  • The Bills have averaged 0.76 epa per play on first read passes this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.17.
  • The Cardinals have averaged 0.54 epa per play on first drive of the game this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
  • The Titans defense have allowed -0.43 epa per play against play action passes this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.04.
  • The Saints defense have allowed -0.31 epa per play with a base rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.
  • Josh Allen (BUF) has averaged 0.44 epa per play on passing attempts this season — best of 35 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: -0.04.
  • Andy Dalton (CAR) has averaged 0.27 epa per play on passing attempts on Early Downs this season — best of 34 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 0.01.
  • Sam Darnold (MIN) has averaged 0.99 epa per play on passing attempts on passes to the middle of the field this season — best of 28 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 0.05.
  • Alec Pierce (IND) has averaged 18.8 yards per target (225 yards/12 targets) this season — best of 77 qualified NFL WRs; League Avg: 7.8.
  • The Packers defense has intercepted 7 of 102 attempts (14.6 pass attempts per int.) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43.2.

NFL Success Rate – Week 1

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Week 1 of the 2024 NFL Season was everything we could’ve hoped for as fans. We had upsets, shootouts, stout defensive battles, and lots of big plays. Some teams shined in their introductory performance to the 2024 Regular Season, while others have shown that they have lots of room for improvement. To quantify which teams had the most “success”, we can categorize any given play as “successful” or unsuccessful” via the below criteria:

  • 1st Down Plays: Gains of at least 50% of yards required for new set of downs
  • 2nd Down Plays: Gains of at least 70% of remaining yards required for new set of downs
  • 3rd and 4th Down Plays: Gains of at 100% of yards required for new set of downs (conversions only)

All touchdowns considered successful, all turnovers considered unsuccessful

Plays called back due to penalty not included

**Week 1 League Average Success Rate: 48.27%

In terms of Net Success Rate (A teams’ offensive success rate – defensive success rate), the New Orleans Saints had the most impressive win of Week 1. In their 47-10 domination over the Carolina Panthers, the Saints totaled a Net Success Rate of approximately 0.2 – as their offense performed a successful play on 58% of snaps while their defense allowed a successful play on just 38% of snaps. Not far behind was the Seattle Seahawks with a net success rate of 0.19 in their 26-20 win over the Denver Broncos. Of all losing teams (shown in blue below), the Cincinnati Bengals had the best net success rate of the bunch at 0.04 in their upset loss to the New England Patriots.

In the below graphic, we can see how each team compared offensively versus defensively. Teams with their logo displayed on the right hand side had an above average offense, while teams on the bottom half had an above average defense. The teams with the best overall performances can be seen in the bottom right quadrant while the teams that lacked success in Week 1 can be found in the top left.

The top offensive success rate of the week was 65.6% from the Detroit Lions in their 26-20 OT victory over the Los Angeles Rams. This came from their consistency in the running game, as they were able to average 5.3 yards per carry despite their longest run totaling only 21 yards. The top defensive success rate of the week came from the Dallas Cowboys, as they held the Cleveland Browns to a successful play on less than 32% of their snaps. Specifically, the Cowboys’ pass defense was stifling, allowing only 3.8 yards per pass attempt to go along with their 6 QB sacks.

 

How successful was your team in Week 1?