Remarkable! World Series Preview — Astros – Dodgers

by | Oct 23, 2017 | Baseball

Houston Astros

The Astros are back in the World Series for the first time since 2005 and the first time ever as an American League team. Houston has won every home game they’ve played in the postseason, but they will only get three home games in the World Series.

 

Starting Pitchers
Dallas Keuchel

Keuchel was the best at getting groundballs in the regular season (67.5 percent), but that number has fallen to 58.5 percent in the postseason. The good news is that he’s striking out more batters instead.  In his three postseason starts, Dallas Keuchel has struck out 35.2 percent (25/71) of batters. In the regular season, his strikeout rate was 21.4 percent. His best pitch this postseason is his slider. Opponents are 2-for-18 (.111 Avg.) against the sweeping pitch and have struck out 11 times in 19 plate appearances (57.9 percent). Keuchel has yet to give up a home run in the playoffs.

 

Justin Verlander

Verlander was essential in the ALCS and he will likely need a huge World Series to propel the Astros to victory. Verlander is striking out batters at the same clip (25.8 percent) as he was in the regular season, but there are differences in his pitch usage. Verlander is throwing his slider 25.1 percent of the time in the playoffs — up from 21.6 percent in the regular season. Opponents are only 6-for-33 (.188 Avg.) on that pitch. A lot of Verlander’s success has been up in the zone. Batters have just one hit in 19 at-bats (.053).

 

Charlie Morton

Morton threw a five-inning gem in Game 7 to help push the Astros past the New York Yankees. He averaged 96.0 MPH on his fastball, up from his regular season average of 94.9 MPH. Morton’s best pitch in the regular season was his curveball (.418 OPS against) and his success has continued in the playoffs. Opponents are only 4-for-18 (.222 Avg.) against the curve with one extra-base hit. Morton was particularly hard on lefties in the regular season. Left-handed batters hit .175 against Morton (44-for-252) this season, sixth best among qualified starters (League Avg: .263).

 

Lance McCullers

The young righty has pitched in a starting and relief role this postseason and will likely get the biggest start of his career in this World Series. McCullers threw his curveball 75.9 percent in his four inning Game 7 save. Batters have an average of just .121 (4-for-33) against the hard curve in the postseason. Facing the first batter of the inning this postseason, McCullers has allowed an OPS of 1.012 including four lead off walks. Once he gets past the first batter of the inning, he is lights out. Opponents are 3-for-31 (.097) with zero extra-base hits.

 

Relief Pitchers

The Astros relief corp has been shaky throughout this whole postseason, but many of the components performed well in the regular season. Let’s take a look what Remarkable! has to say about the Astros pen:

  • Chris Devenski allowed an OBP of .178 (28/157) vs left-handed batters this season (Rank: 4th of 236 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .328).
  • Ken Giles had a strikeout rate of 57.1% (185/324) with two strikes since the start of 2016 (Rank: 6th of 165 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 43.2%).
  • Will Harris walked 7 of 177 batters (4.0%) this season (Rank: 7th of 250 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 9.2%).
  • Opponents hit .109 against Luke Gregerson (26-for-239) with two strikes since the start of 2016 (Rank: 10th of 165 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .168).

 

Team Notes

The Astros put together an incredible offensive season in 2017. With the help of Remarkable! let’s take a look at where they ranked among all 30 MLB teams:

  • Astros hitters struck out just 114 times in 695 PAs (16.4%) versus LHP since the All-Star Break (Rank: 1st of 30 in MLB; League Avg: 21.5%).
  • The Astros scored three or more runs in an inning in 7.6% (109/1,428) of their innings played this season (Rank: 2nd of 30 in MLB; League Avg: 6.0%).
  • The Astros won 76.1% of games in which they scored first (70/92) this season (Rank: 3rd of 30 in MLB; League Avg: 64.8%).
  • Astros hitters had an OBP of .351 on the road this season (Rank: 1st of 30 in MLB; League Avg: .318).

 

Hitters

Jose Altuve is the MVP at the plate for the Astros in the postseason. Let’s see what Remarkable! has to say about the batters in the regular season:

  • Brian McCann slugged 1.133 (34 total bases in 30 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats this season (Rank: 3rd of 145 part-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .585).
  • Carlos Correa hit .391 (36-for-92) versus LHP this season (Rank: 3rd of 174 part-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .255).
  • Jose Altuve has a groundball batting average of .356 (88 GB hits out of 247 GBs) this season (Rank: 2nd of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .249).

  • George Springer has chased 16.5% of pitches out of the zone (61/369) versus LHP this season (Rank: 4th of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: 29.6%).

  • Josh Reddick batted .257 (57-for-222) with two strikes this season (Rank: 5th of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .176).
  • Evan Gattis slugged .700 (42 total bases in 60 ABs) on high fastballs this season (Rank: 5th of 174 part-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .400).

  • Yuli Gurriel slugged .630 (17 total bases in 27 ABs) on curves and sliders against LHP this season (Rank: 11th of 121 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .347).
  • Alex Bregman has not drawn a walk in his last 34 PA’s against a LHP dating back to September 5th (Tim Anderson has the longest active streak at 113).
  • Marwin Gonzalez has an OBP of .416 (255 PAs) on the road this season (Rank: 6th of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .318).

 

Los Angeles Dodgers

Following two dominant performances in the NLDS and NLCS, the Los Angeles Dodgers are in the World Series for the first time since 1988. With a mix of strong hitting and dominant pitching, Los Angeles has only dropped one game this whole postseason. With the help of Remarkable! let’s take a look at the NL pennant winners…

 

Starting Pitchers
Clayton Kershaw

Kershaw is one of many Dodgers pitchers about to get their first taste of the World Series. During the regular season, Kershaw allowed an OPS of just .579 on inside pitches, but the postseason has been another story. Opponents are 8-for-17 (.471 avg) with six home runs on inside pitches in his three playoff stars. The Dodgers Ace had a strike rate of 68.6 percent (1,729/2,521) this season, best in MLB (League Avg: 63.3 percent). This postseason, Kershaw is only throwing strikes at a 64.9 percent rate. Since the start of 2016, right-handed hitters have an OPS of just .552 against the Dodgers’ lefty. Right-handed batters’ OPS has ballooned up to .864 in the postseason.

 

Rich Hill

The veteran lefty is throwing his fastball 10 percent more in the postseason. Opponents only hit .176 (40-for-227) against Rich Hill’s fastball during the regular season, best in MLB (League Avg: .284). Hill has dabbled with a slider, but his best breaking ball is his curve. Hitters chased 113 of Hill’s 255 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 44.3 percent) this season, 18th best among starters (League Avg: 36.0 percent). One more strength from Hill? He gets ahead of batters. The 37-year old lefty threw at least two strikes in the first three pitches to 70.1 percent (312/445) of opposing batters this season, sixth best in MLB (League Avg: 61.6%).

 

Yu Darvish

Darvish has thrown incredibly well in his two starts in the postseason. In fact, he has only walked one batter in 43 plate appearances (2.3 percent walk rate). Right-handed hitters only hit .194 (67-for-346) in the regular season against Darvish, seventh best among starters (League Avg: .259). All opponents have a miss rate of 31.3 percent against Yu Darvish in the second half of the season, seventh best among qualified starters (League Avg: 22.8 percent).

 

Alex Wood

Alex Wood only started one game in the postseason and he allowed three solo home runs, one on each of his three pitches – fastball, curve, and slider. His best pitch is his changeup. Hitters chased 184 of Wood’s 393 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 46.8 percent) this season, sixth most among starters (League Avg: 35.4 percent). Opponents only hit .174 (28-for-161) on his tailing changeup, 13th among starters (League Avg: .252).

 

Relief Pitchers

The Dodgers bullpen has allowed just three extra-base hits in 96 at-bats in the postseason. Let’s take a look at what Remarkable! has to say about one of the best bullpens in baseball:

  • Kenley Jansen has a strike rate of 73.6% (745/1,012) this season (Rank: 2nd of 250 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 63.2%).
  • Brandon Morrow has recorded 39 of his 50 strikeouts (78.0%) with his fastball this season (Rank: 15th of 205 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 47.6%).
  • Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 42.6% (75/176) against Tony Watson this season (Rank: 3rd of 247 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 29.3%).
  • Kenta Maeda has not given up a hit as a relief pitcher this postseason.
  • Opponents have a miss rate of 29.3% (49/167) against Tony Cingrani on fastballs since the All-Star Break (Rank: 19th of 246 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 20.5%).

 

 

Team Notes

The Dodgers were one of the most complete teams this year. Let’s take a look where they ranked among the 30 teams in multiple categories:

  • Opponents are hitting .215 against Dodgers pitchers (243-for-1,131) with RISP this season (Rank: 1st of 30 in MLB; League Avg: .260).
  • Dodgers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28.0% (1,049/3,751) vs right-handed batters this season (Rank: 2nd of 30 in MLB; League Avg: 22.2%).
  • Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .789 (1,809 PAs) versus LHP this season (Rank: 5th of 30 in MLB; League Avg: .745).
  • The Dodgers have won 89.2% of games in which they scored first (33/37) at home this season (Rank: 1st of 30 in MLB; League Avg: 71.2%).

 

Hitters

Enrique Hernandez and Charlie Culberson were unexpected heroes for the Dodgers in the NLCS, who will step up for them in the World Series? Let’s see what Remarkable! has to say about the Dodgers hitters:

  • Austin Barnes had an OBP of .389 (131 PAs) with two strikes this season (Rank: 1st of 176 part-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .250).

  • Logan Forsythe drew 29 walks in 117 PAs (24.8%) with RISP this season (Rank: 2nd of 176 part-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: 11.1%).
  • Cody Bellinger slugged .615 (120 total bases in 195 ABs) on non-fastballs this season (Rank: 2nd of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .375).

  • Corey Seager had a line drive rate of 26.5% (109/411) this season (Rank: 6th of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: 21.7%).
  • Justin Turner had an OPS of 1.181 (172 PAs) versus LHP this season (Rank: 3rd of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .745).
  • Chris Taylor had 20 Extra-Base hits out of 34 total hits (58.8%) on fastballs away this season (Rank: 3rd of 125 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: 32.5%).
  • Yasiel Puig had a Well-Hit Avg of .209 (43/206) on non-fastballs this season (Rank: 5th of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .130).
  • Curtis Granderson had an OPS of just .625 (224 PAs) at home this season (Rank: 142nd of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .769).

 

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