Remarkable! NLCS Preview — Cubs – Dodgers

by | Oct 13, 2017 | Baseball

Cubs

In one of the wackiest Game 5’s in recent history, the Cubs held off the Nationals and escaped into the NLCS. The road does not get easier as they face the behemoth Los Angeles Dodgers. Let’s take a look at the probable starters for the defending World Champions.

 

Cubs Starters
Jose Quintana

Quintana saw the mound in relief in Game 5. He gave up a hit and a walk in two thirds of an inning. Previously in the NLDS, he went 5.2 innings giving up two hits and a walk, striking out seven. So far this year, it has been one of the better postseason pitching performances. In the NLCS, Quintana will have to quiet the two big left-handed bats in the Dodgers lineup. The Cubs’ lefty has not walked a left-handed hitter in his last 64 plate appearances, the longest active streak in the Majors. Quintana allowed a slugging percentage of just .237 (14 Total Bases/59 ABs) to left-handed batters in the second half of the season, seventh best among starters (League Avg: .440). Lefties also have a low .501 OPS against Quintana’s curveball and they strike out 39.7 percent of the time.

 

Jake Arrieta

Arrieta struggled to the tune of five walks in Game 4, he only did that one other time this season, when he walked six on June 27 against Washington. The Cubs right-hander does excel against same-handed batters. Righties only hit .150 (20-for-133) against Arrieta in the second half of the season, second best (League Avg: .303). Since Arrieta has a lot of movement on his pitches, they are difficult to square up, even when they are in the strike zone. Opponents hit. .259 (121-for-467) on pitches in the zone this season, 16th best in the Majors (League Avg: .301). Another area where opponents struggle is on Arrieta’s off-speed pitches. Opponents hit just .169 (14-for-83) against his non-fastballs in the second half, T-18th best (League Avg: .230).

 

Kyle Hendricks

Hendricks struggled in Game 5, but he threw a seven inning gem in Game 1 of the NLDS. The Cubs are hoping he returns to form in the NLCS. A way to get him back on track is with his extremely effective changeup. Kyle Hendricks recorded 44 of his 72 strikeouts (61.1%) with his changeup in the second half, the second best rate among starters (League Avg: 22.3%). To set up the changeup, he still needs to throw his fastball, though it averaged just 86 mph in the second half, the fourth lowest average in that time frame. Despite the lack of velocity, batters have an OPS of just .629 on inside fastballs against him (League Avg: .810). Another area where Hendricks controls the game is when runners are in scoring position. The crafty righty allowed a slugging percentage of just .173 (nine total bases/52 ABs) with RISP in the second half, third best among starters (League Avg: .444).

 

Jon Lester

In Game 2 of the NLDS, Jon Lester allowed just two hits, two walks, and a run in six innings, but the Cubs dropped the game in dramatic fashion. Lester has a knack for making hitters hit his pitch. Opposing batters had a chase rate of 43.3 percent (61/141) against Lester when he was behind in the count in the second half, the second best rate in the league (League Avg: 26.4%). Lester only threw an off-speed pitch 21.8 percent (685/3,140) of the time this season (fourth lowest among starters; League Avg: 41.8 percent), but when he did, it was effective. In fact, opponents hit just .159 (13-for-82) against his curveball and struck out 51.7 percent of the time on the pitch.

 

Cubs Relievers

Wade Davis came through with 2.1 innings of relief to seal the one-run victory in Game 5. Let’s take a look at Davis and the rest of the relief core with the help of Remarkable!:

  • Opponents had a groundball rate of 77.1% (37/48) against Pedro Strop with RISP this season (Rank: 1st of 199 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 46.2%).
  • Left-handed batters hit .119 against Carl Edwards (13-for-109) this season (Rank: 3rd of 230 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .245).
  • Opponents hit .142 against Cubs relievers (165-for-1,163) with two strikes this season (Rank: 2nd of 30 in MLB; League Avg: .168).
  • Wade Davis had a strikeout rate of 41.4% (12/29) with RISP after the All-Star Break (Rank: 5th of 149 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 21.1%).
  • Brian Duensing allowed an OPS of .384 (41 PAs) vs left-handed batters after the All-Star Break (Rank: 6th of 231 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .724).

 

Cubs Hitters

Addison Russell delivered a huge two-run double against Max Scherzer in Game 5. Who will step up to the plate for the Cubs in the NLCS? Let’s see what Remarkable! can dig up:

  • Kyle Schwarber slugged 1.231 (48 total bases in 39 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats this season (Rank: 1st of 145 part-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .585).
  • 25.2% of Albert Almora’s plate appearances lasted only one pitch (34/135 PAs) after the All-Star Break (Rank: 1st of 159 part-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: 10.7%).
  • Anthony Rizzo had a line drive rate of 40.0% (16/40) on breaking balls down and away this season (Rank: 1st of 98 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: 18.6%).
  • Willson Contreras had an OPS of 1.444 (44 PAs) with RISP in the second half (Rank: 1st of 158 part-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .775).
  • Javier Baez chased 58.1% of pitches out of the zone (187/322) with RISP this season (Rank: 145th of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: 32.7%).
  • Kris Bryant had an OPS of 1.112 (154 PAs) on the road in the second half (Rank: 1st of 160 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .730).
  • Cubs hitters had an OBP of .352 after the All-Star Break (Rank: 1st of 30 in MLB; League Avg: .325).

 

Dodgers

The Dodgers made quick work of the Diamondbacks and now look forward to their next opponent on the path to becoming World Champions. The bats came through in the first two games of the series, as the team scored a combined 17 runs. In Game 3, Yu Darvish pitched a gem and Los Angeles is starting to look like the team with the best record in MLB again. Now, let’s take a look at the Dodgers starters…

 

Dodgers Starters
Clayton Kershaw

The leader of the Dodgers picked up the first postseason win this year, but it was not a spectacular outing. Kershaw gave up four solo home runs over 6.1 innings in a 9-5 Dodgers win. It’s the second time this season that he’s allowed four home runs, and he’s managed to win both times. He’s the only pitcher this season to allow at least four home runs and still get the win. One of those home runs came on a curveball against J.D. Martinez. It was the first time all season that Kershaw threw a curveball when he was behind in the count. When the Dodgers’ Ace was behind in the count, he had a strike rate of 80.3 percent (327/407) this season, best in the Majors. Much of that success stems from the high chase rate Kershaw creates. Since the All-Star Break, opposing hitters have a chase rate of 51.2 percent (21/41) against Kershaw when he’s behind in the count, best among starters (League Avg: 26.4 percent). Batters need to take advantage when they are ahead in the count because it does not happen often. In fact, Kershaw threw at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 71.7 percent (354/494) of opposing batters in the regular season, the third highest mark in the league (League Avg: 61.6 percent).

 

Rich Hill

Despite a less than desirable start in Game 2, Rich Hill helped his team to an 8-5 victory. The veteran lefty throws his curveball 41.6 percent of the time. Opponents don’t square it up often, as they have a well-hit average of .082 (21/256) against his curves and sliders this season, 15th best in MLB (League Avg: .130). When runners are in scoring position, Hill bears down:

Event AVG OBP SLG OPS GB%
No RISP .207 .292 .386 .678 36.7%
RISP .186 .267 ,216 .483 47.8%

 

Hill did not allow a home run with RISP the whole season.

 

Yu Darvish

Darvish gave up just two hits over five innings in Game 3, the clinching game against the Diamondbacks. Darvish’s strength comes on his hard off-speed pitches and an overpowering fastball. Opponents had a miss rate of 37.5 percent (107/285) against Darvish on high fastballs this season, second among qualified starters (League Avg: 23.1 percent). Getting the first out in an inning is imperative to squashing the opposition’s chances of scoring. The first batter of an inning hit only .174 (30-for-172) against Yu Darvish this season, eighth lowest in MLB (League Avg: .263). His best pitch? The slider:

 

Pitch AVG OBP SLG OPS
Lg Avg. Slider .215 .263 .363 .626
Slider .161 .214 .271 .484

 

Alex Wood

When he gets the ball in Game 4, Wood will be the third Dodgers lefty to start in the series. He’s had a good season, but his recent numbers are concerning:

Months AVG OBP SLG OPS K% GB%
Apr.-Jun. .178 .247 .239 .485 30.2% 65.5%
Jul.-Sept, .252 .298 .440 .739 19.6% 45.9%

Wood’s strongest pitch is his changeup. Opponents hit .174 (28-for-161) against him on changeups this season, 13th best among starters (League Avg: .252). Hitters chased 184 of his 393 changeups out of the zone (46.8 percent chase rate) this season, sixth best among starters (League Avg: 35.4 percent).

 

Dodgers Relievers

Kenta Maeda was utilized out of the pen in Game 2 and Game 3 of the NLDS. Here’s what Remarkable! has to say about the true relievers on the Dodgers:

  • Kenley Jansen had a strikeout rate of 50.0% (30/60) with RISP this season (Rank: 3rd of 221 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 21.7%).
  • Tony Watson had a strike rate of 73.0% (267/366) vs left-handed batters this season (Rank: 5th of 250 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 62.2%).
  • Brandon Morrow allowed an OPS of .308 (60 PAs) vs left-handed batters this season (Rank: 2nd of 244 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .728).
  • Tony Cingrani allowed a slugging percentage of .654 (17 Total Bases / 26 ABs) with RISP since the All-Star Break (Rank: 103rd of 105 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .411).
  • Josh Fields recorded 54 of his 60 strikeouts (90.0%) with his fastball this season (Rank: 3rd of 205 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 47.6%).

 

Dodgers Hitters

Justin Turner started off the NLDS with a three-run home run and Austin Barnes finished it with a solo shot. Here’s what Remarkable! has to say about the team with the best record in the NL:

  • Austin Barnes had an OBP of .444 (133 PAs) versus RHP this season (Rank: 1st of 176 part-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .324).
  • Corey Seager had a Well-Hit Avg of .317 (33/104) on inside fastballs this season (Rank: 1st of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .147).
  • Dodgers hitters drew 281 walks in 2,348 PAs (12.0%) versus relief pitchers this season (Rank: 1st of 30 in MLB; League Avg: 9.2%).
  • Yasiel Puig had a line drive rate of just 17.1% (69/404) this season (Rank: 144th of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: 21.7%).
  • Curtis Granderson had 53 Extra-Base hits out of 95 total hits (55.8%) this season (Rank: 2nd of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: 36.2%).
  • Justin Turner hit .316 (36-for-114) on low non-fastballs this season (Rank: 4th of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .192).
  • Cody Bellinger had a groundball rate of just 27.5% (19/69) on curves and sliders this season (Rank: 143rd of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: 46.7%).
  • Logan Forsythe only chased 15.5% of pitches out of the zone (150/970) this season (Rank: 2nd of 176 part-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: 29.2%).
  • Chase Utley missed just 14.3% (74/519) of swung-on pitches this season (Rank: 10th of 176 part-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: 24.1%).

 

 

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