Remarkable! ALDS Preview — Red Sox – Astros

by | Oct 4, 2017 | Baseball

The Red Sox and Astros each won their division. Now, all fans are in for a great Game 1 pitcher’s duel when aces Chris Sale and Justin Verlander take the mound in the playoffs for the first time with their new teams. Remarkable! fills us in on these incredible arms and the rest of the ALDS cast…

 

Game 1

Chris Sale – FB 49.7%, SL 32.9%, CH 17.4%

Sale struck out 308 batters this season and finished with the league’s highest strikeout rate (36.2%) among qualified starters. It’s important to get ahead of hitters and no one was better at that than the Red Sox’ Ace. Sale has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 74.4 percent (490/659) of batters this season, and when hitters are behind in the count, they don’t have much hope — they are hitting just .128 (62/484) (league avg. .196).

Despite a solid three-pitch mix, Sale has not seen the same success with his changeup:

Pitch AVG K%
Fastball .205 35.7%
Slider .179 46.9%
Change .279 14.5%

Left-handed batters do not have an extra-base hit against Sale’s sweeping slider in 51 PAs. In minimal opportunities, Jose Altuve (1.121 OPS in 14 PAs) and Carlos Correa (2.375 OPS in eight PAs) have hit left-handed sliders well this season.

 

Justin Verlander – FB 58.4%, SL 21.6%, CV 16.0%, CH 4.0%

Justin Verlander opposes Sale on Thursday. The Astros acquired Verlander at the waiver trade deadline and the new Astros Ace has found the fountain of youth:

Pitcher Team AVG SLG K/BB Ratio
Detroit Tigers .234 .387 2.63
Houston Astros .149 .272 8.60

 

Verlander was a top of the line starter before the trade, but since then he has been inhuman. His slider has found new life with the Astros. In 43 PAs, opponents have an OPS of just .461 — compare that to .746 prior to the trade. In nine PAs with runners in scoring position (RISP), Verlander has yet to give up a hit with his new team. Over the last 30 days, opponents have a miss rate of 34.1 percent (14/41) on inside fastballs, highest in the MLB. During the same 30-day stretch, right-handed batters are only hitting .092 (6-for-65), third lowest.

Everyone hopes these two dominant pitchers will go deep into what will become a future classic game, but it is the playoffs and relievers might play an important role.

 

Game 2

Drew Pomeranz – FB 54.9%, CT 6.5%, CV 37.0%, CH 1.6%

Drew Pomeranz gets the nod in Game 2 of this best-of-five series. The lefty throws his curveball 37.7 percent (279/741) of the time on the first pitch of at-bats, second highest rate this season. Opposing batters have a .273 batting average against the curve, but are only slugging .325 on the pitch. Pomeranz had success busting hitters inside:

Location AVG SLG XBH
Away .290 .441 24
Middle .267 .409 12
In .204 .322 13

Luck is not on his side when he faces left-handed batters. Pomeranz has allowed a BABIP of .412 against lefties this season, fifth worst among starting pitchers. The high BABIP has led to reverse splits for Pomeranz — lefties (.778 OPS) hit better against him than righties (.693 OPS) did this season.

 

Dallas Keuchel – FB 56.5%, CT 11.7%, SL 18.8%, CH 13.0%

The former Cy Young winner will get the ball in Game 2 for the Astros in a lefty-lefty duel at Minute Maid Park. Unlike Pomeranz, left-handed hitters are really struggling against Keuchel this season:

Batter Side AVG SLG K% BB%
Left .145 .245 30.8% 4.3%
Right .236 .359 19.1% 9.0%

During the last two months of the season, Keuchel’s strikeout numbers dropped off.  Against lefties, the percentage fell to 21.5. Similarly, right-handed batters only struck out at a 17.9 percent clip over the last two months. Despite the lower strikeout numbers, Keuchel can still find success with his high groundball rate (67.5 percent), best in MLB. This has led to 24 double plays in 105 opportunities (22.9 percent) this season, the highest rate in MLB.

Neither team has announced their starters beyond Games 1 and 2.  We’ll take a look into Remarkable! to learn more about the potential starters for each team:


Astros

Charlie Morton
  • Morton struck out 32.8% (94/287) of left-handed batters he faced this season (Rank: 4th of 155 qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19.7%).
  • He has allowed an OPS of .643 (215 PAs) against the heart of the order this season (Rank: 11th of 158 qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .829).
Brad Peacock
  • Opponents have a miss rate of 36.8% (28/76) against him on the first pitch of at-bats since the All-Star Break (Rank: Tied for 4th of 170 qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23.3%).
  • Peacock has allowed an OPS of .458 (149 PAs) vs right-handed batters since the All-Star Break (Rank: 4th of 185 qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .760).

 

 

Red Sox

Eduardo Rodriguez
  • Rodriguez has allowed a slugging percentage of .711 (27 Total Bases / 38 ABs) on curves and sliders this season (Rank: 145th of 146 qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .372).
  • Hitters have chased 78 of his 157 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 49.7%) since the All-Star Break (Rank: 6th of 132 qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35.0%).
Rick Porcello
  • Porcello has a first-pitch strike rate of 67.2% (595/886) this season (Rank: 5th of 159 qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 60.7%).
  • He has thrown his slider 27.2% of the time (70/257) when he’s behind in the count since the All-Star Break (Rank: 14th of 112 qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16.8%).

 

Red Sox Relievers

Craig Kimbrel is the best reliever in the Red Sox bullpen, but David Price might be a multi-inning catalyst. In five outings out of the pen, Price has struck out 13, walked two, and given up three hits in 8.2 scoreless innings. Let’s see what Remarkable! has to say about the Red Sox relievers:

 

  • Craig Kimbrel has a strikeout rate of 64.3% (36/56) with RISP this season (Rank: 1st of 221 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 21.7%).
  • Joe Kelly has an average fastball velocity of 98.9 MPH this season (Rank: 2nd of 250 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 93.4).

  • Addison Reed is performing better after the trade to the Red Sox:
Pitcher Team AVG SLG Miss%
New York Mets .255 .406 23.5%
Boston Red Sox .168 .358 30.6%

 

  • Red Sox relievers have allowed a slugging percentage of .347 (426 Total Bases / 1,228 ABs) vs right-handed batters this season (Rank: 3rd of 30 in MLB; League Avg: .404).

 

Astros Relievers

The Astros bullpen once was thriving, but they have shown chinks in the armor as of late. Astros relievers have allowed an OPS of .985 (83 PAs) in lefty-lefty matchups since the All-Star Break (Rank: 30th of 30 in MLB; League Avg: .639). Right-handers Ken Giles and Chris Devenski lead the pen:

 

  • Ken Giles has allowed an OBP of .138 (8/58) against the first batter faced in an inning this season (Rank: 2nd of 204 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .312).
  • Chris Devenski has struggled in the second half:

 

Half AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS vs. FB
First half .160 .223 .294 .517 .573
Second Half .200 .289 .430 .719 .965

 

  • Opponents have a 1.005 OPS against Francisco Liriano’s fastball this season.
  • Luke Gregerson has recorded 53 of his 70 strikeouts (75.7%) with his slider this season (Rank: 9th of 135 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 40.8%).

 

Red Sox Hitters

No Boston hitter had a spectacular season, but Mookie Betts led the way for the Red Sox. Betts slugged .720 on inside fastballs, fourth highest in MLB. Here’s what Remarkable! has to say about the rest of the Boston hitters:

  • Hanley Ramirez is batting just .213 (26-for-122) on fastballs since the All-Star Break (Rank: 156th of 160 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .281)
  • Xander Bogaerts is batting just .190 (20-for-105) on the road since the All-Star Break (Rank: 157th of 160 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .249)
  • Dustin Pedroia is batting .394 (13-for-33) on pitches 94 mph or greater since the All-Star Break (Rank: 5th of 139 part-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .261)
  • Andrew Benintendi is batting .289 (35-for-121) on curves and sliders against RHP this season (Rank: 13th of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .218)
  • Jackie Bradley is slugging just .302 (68 total bases in 225 ABs) since the All-Star Break (Rank: 159th of 160 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .426).
  • Rafael Devers has not drawn a walk in his last 47 PA’s against a RHP dating back to September 15th (Martin Maldonado has the longest active streak at 94).
  • Mitch Moreland is batting just .074 (2-for-27) on low fastballs since the All-Star Break (Rank: 156th of 156 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .290)
  • Christian Vazquez is batting .314 (50-for-159) since the All-Star Break (Rank: 10th of 159 part-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .255)

 

Astros Hitters

Houston’s astounding offensive season can be traced to their ability to cut down on strikeouts.  In 2016, the Astros had a 23.4% K rate, fourth highest in the Majors.  This season, however, the Astros have the best K rate in the league at 17.3%. Let’s take a look at Remarkable! to see what else the Astros hitters have been up to:

  • Astros hitters have an OPS of .823 (6,271 PAs) this season (Rank: 1st of 30 in MLB; League Avg: .750).
  • 21.6% of Jose Altuve‘s plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (143/662 PAs) this season (Rank: 1st of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: 10.8%).
  • Altuve is batting .479 (45-for-94) when ahead in the count this season (Rank: 3rd of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .350).
  • Carlos Correa has an OBP of .457 (105 PAs) versus LHP this season (Rank: 4th of 176 part-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .326).
  • Alex Bregman has struck out 7 times in 72 PAs (9.7%) versus LHP since the All-Star Break (Rank: 16th of 160 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: 21.5%).
  • Yuli Gurriel has a Well-Hit Avg of .184 (40/217) with two strikes this season (Rank: 2nd highest of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .101).
  • George Springer has drawn 12 walks in 62 PAs (19.4%) versus LHP since the All-Star Break (Rank: 8th of 160 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: 8.7%).
  • Josh Reddick is batting .513 (20-for-39) on low fastballs since the All-Star Break (Rank: 3rd of 156 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .290).

 

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