The Colorado Rockies had to wait until game 161 to celebrate their playoff birth, but they are riding high, having logged at least 10 hits in each of their last five games. Meanwhile, MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt is hitless in his last 17 ABs for the Diamondbacks. The Dbacks won the top Wild Card spot by a comfortable six game margin, but the slate is wiped clean for this one-game winner take all. We turn to Remarkable! for a breakdown….
Jon Gray – FB 57%, SL 27.5%, CV 13.8%, CH 1.6%
Jon Gray gets the start for the Rockies. Opposing hitters have found success ambushing Gray. He has surrendered a slugging percentage of .808 on the first pitch since the All-Star Break (fourth highest in the MLB; league avg. .585). Gray bears down with runners in scoring position (RISP). Since the break, opponents are hitting .164 with RISP (eighth lowest in MLB; league avg. .268). With an average fastball velocity of 96.0 mph (fourth highest among qualified starters) it may be shocking to see the kind of success opponents have had against Gray’s heater this year:
| Fastball | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| vs. LHB | .316 | .377 | .480 | .858 |
| vs. RHB | .380 | .424 | .608 | 1.031 |
Gray has had far more success putting hitters away with his breaking pitches. Lefties hit just .113 against Gray’s slider this year — with just one XBH in 69 PAs. Right-handed batters have only tallied four hits in 29 PAs against the curveball.
The Diamondbacks have an .871 OPS against fastballs (2nd highest in MLB behind the Astros), but they also have 153 Extra-Base hits out of 354 total hits (43.2%) on curves and sliders this season (Rank: 1st of 30 in MLB; League Avg: 36.1%). Gray will have his work cut out for him if he wants to keep the Dbacks hitters off-balance.
Zack Greinke – FB 48.4%, SL 22.5%, CV 13.6%, CH 15.6%
Zack Greinke gets the ball for the Diamondbacks in this one-game playoff. His slider is one of the best pitches in the league. He throws it in the strike zone just 32.6 percent of the time (league avg. 42.8 percent), but batters chase over half (50.3 percent) of sliders out of the zone. Opponents have an OPS of just .581 against the slider — 16 XBHs in 229 PAs. When Greinke is behind in the count to lefties, he throws his changeup 44 percent of the time. Lefties have hit just .217 against the change in 129 ABs. If hitters do put the changeup in play, they hit it on the ground 69.7 percent of the time, second highest in the MLB. Rockies hitters will need to be on their A-game against one of the league’s best.
Colorado Relievers
Greg Holland has led a rejuvenated Colorado bullpen. Against him, batters have struck out 58 times in 129 PAs ending on the slider. Here’s what Remarkable! has to say about the Rockies’ pen:
- Pat Neshek has not allowed a walk in his last 135 PA’s against a RHB dating back to April 16th (this is the longest active streak).
- Opponents have a groundball rate of 59.5% (147/247) against Chris Rusin this season (Rank: 18th of 245 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 45.4%).
- Holland has allowed a slugging percentage of .655 (19 Total Bases / 29 ABs) with RISP since the All-Star Break (Rank: 104th of 105 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .411).
- Jake McGee has allowed an OPS of just .472 (41 PAs) when he’s behind in the count this season (Rank: 1st of 230 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.108).
- Rockies relievers have allowed a slugging percentage of .387 (244 Total Bases / 631 ABs) against the heart of the order this season (Rank: 4th of 30 in MLB; League Avg: .432).
Arizona Relievers
Fernando Rodney and Archie Bradley form a two-headed monster in the back end of the bullpen. Opposing batters miss 46.7 percent of Rodney’s changeups they swing at (eighth highest in MLB; league avg. 31.1 percent). Remarkable! has more on the Arizona pen:
- Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 61.7% (37/60) against Andrew Chafin this season (Rank: 14th of 225 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 45.4%).
- Opponents have a Well-Hit Avg of .079 (19/240) against Diamondbacks relievers in lefty-lefty matchups this season (Rank: best in MLB; League Avg: .118).
- Archie Bradley allowed one XBH in 68 PAs with runners in scoring position.
- Left-handed batters are hitting .136 against Jorge De La Rosa’s changeup.
- Fernando Rodney has allowed a slugging percentage of .227 (22 Total Bases / 97 ABs) against right-handed batters this season (Rank: 8th of 237 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .404).
Colorado Hitters
The Rockies are only slugging .390 on the road this season, fifth worst in baseball. Away from Coors they struggle, but Chase Field is a hitter-friendly park too. Let’s see what else Remarkable! has to say about Colorado’s hitters:
- Charlie Blackmon has an OPS of 1.005 on curves and sliders against right-handed pitching this season, fourth best in MLB
- Carlos Gonzalez has an OBP of .590 (61 PAs) versus RHP over the last 30 days (Rank: 1st of 163 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .320).
- Nolan Arenado vs. inside FB: 1.369 OPS — 26 XBHs in 115 PAs
- Jonathan Lucroy has drawn 12 walks in 53 PAs (22.6%) versus RHP over the last 30 days (Rank: 2nd of 163 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: 8.4%).
- Trevor Story is slugging 1.103 (32 total bases in 29 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats since the All-Star Break (Rank: 1st of 108 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .582).
- Ian Desmond has a groundball rate of 63.2% (163/258) this season (Rank: 1st of 176 part-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: 45.3%).
- Gerardo Parra is hitless in his last 12 AB’s against RHP dating back to September 24th.
- Mark Reynolds has an OPS of 1.579 (121 PAs) when the pitcher is behind in the count this season (Rank: 5th of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: 1.119).
Arizona Hitters
All eyes will be on Paul Goldschmidt and J.D. Martinez. The duo combined for a 1.020 OPS in the second half, helping lead the Diamondbacks back to the postseason for the first time since 2011. Let’s take a look at Remarkable! to see what else the DBacks hitters have done:
- David Peralta is batting .484 (15-for-31) on the first pitch of at-bats since the All-Star Break (Rank: 8th of 108 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .349).
- A.J. Pollock is slugging 1.000 (38 total bases in 38 ABs) on high fastballs since the All-Star Break (Rank: 1st of 157 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .403).
- Jake Lamb has 133 Extra-Base hits out of 263 total hits (50.6%) since the start of 2016 (Rank: 2nd of 130 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: 35.5%)
- Chris Iannetta has an OBP of .400 (170 PAs) since the All-Star Break (Rank: Tied for 5th of 159 part-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .325).
- J.D. Martinez is slugging 1.015 (69 total bases in 68 ABs) versus RHP over the last 30 days (Rank: 2nd of 163 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .423).
- The Diamondbacks are batting just .160 (219-for-1,372) with two strikes since the All-Star Break (Rank: 26th of 30 in MLB; League Avg: .175)
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