After a grueling 162 game schedule, the Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees have earned the right to a one-game playoff. Veteran Ervin Santana will toe the rubber for the Twins, while the Yankees turn to 23-year old Luis Severino. It all comes down to this! Here is our Remarkable! preview….
Ervin Santana – FB 52.6%, SL 36.7%, CH 10.7%
On September 18, Santana took the mound against the Yankees and was credited with a 2-1 loss, allowing 2 runs on 7 hits in 5.2 IP. The Twins will hope Santana can go deeper into the game this time around, but starting pitchers have lasted less than 6 innings against the Yankees in each of the last 9 games. Santana throws his slider a lot, including 34.1 percent of the time on the first pitch, fifth highest percent in the Majors this season. As a team, the Yankees have an OPS of .645 against sliders, eighth best in baseball. Santana bears down with runners in scoring position (RISP), allowing a .199 batting average compared to a .231 batting average against without RISP. We’ll see if Santana can keep this magic alive.
Luis Severino – FB 51.3%, SL 35.2%, CH 13.5%
Last time out against the Twins, Luis Severino struggled through three innings, but that is not indicative of his full season of work. Severino is one of the top pitchers in the AL, having the eighth highest strikeout rate, seventh best OBP against, and ninth best SLG against. In addition, Severino’s average fastball velocity was 97.6 MPH this season, ranking first among qualified starters. This season, against pitches 94 MPH or greater, the Twins batted only .237, second worst in the MLB. Look for Severino to light up the radar gun in his start, especially if Manager Joe Girardi decides to use his incredible bullpen early.
Reliever Notes
Twins
Minnesota traded away one of their top relievers, Brandon Kintzler, at the trade deadline. Trevor Hildenberger, Matt Belisle, and Taylor Rogers have filled the void for the surprise team of the year.
Trevor Hildenberger
- Hildenberger has walked 3 of 133 batters (2.3%) since the All-Star Break (Rank: 10th of 250 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 9.2%).
- Hildenberger has thrown his changeup 34.6% of the time (167/483) since the All-Star Break (Rank: 9th of 67 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 21.2%).
- Opponents vs. CH: .182 BA — 3 XBHs in 57 PAs
Matt Belisle
- Opponents are hitting .021 against Matt Belisle (1-for-48) with two strikes since the All-Star Break (Rank: 1st of 214 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .166)
- Throws SL 34.6% of the time — LHB vs. SL: 2 hits in 28 PAs
Taylor Rogers
- Rogers has allowed an OPS of .416 (38 PAs) vs left-handed batters since the All-Star Break (Rank: 13th of 230 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .726).
- LHB vs. Rogers: .176/.256/.311 4 XBHs in 83 PAs
- Rogers has located his fastball up for a strike 72.6% (45/62) of the time since the All-Star Break (Rank: 11th of 229 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 60.3%).
Alan Busenitz, a call-up this season, is another name to look for out of the pen if Santana gets in trouble. Batters have a .446 OPS against Busenitz’s curve.
Yankees
The Yankees bullpen rivals some of the best bullpens in the history of baseball and they could choose to go to it early. Below is a table showing OPS against, average/slugging against each relievers best pitch, and the miss rate on the best pitch:
| Pitcher | OPS | AVG/SLG vs. Best Pitch | Miss rate% vs. Best Pitch |
| Dellin Betances | .538 | CV: .104/.144 | CV: 43.6% |
| Aroldis Chapman | .584 | FB: .190/.282 | FB: 27.2% |
| Chad Green | .454 | FB: .134/.238 | FB: 37.4% |
| Tommy Kahnle | .648 w/NYY | SL: .200/.200 | SL: 44.4% |
| David Robertson | .399 w/ NYY | CV: .083/.153 | CV: 48.5% |
| Adam Warren | .491 | SL: .202/310 | SL: 23.6% |
David Robertson has not allowed an earned run in his last 19 innings and has not allowed a home run in his last 30 innings. The Yankees bullpen is poised for a deep run in the playoffs unless the Twins can pull off an upset.
Batting Notes
Twins
The Twins will get a steady dose of high velocity fastballs Tuesday night. Brian Dozier is slugging .634 (92 total bases in 145 ABs) on pitches 94 mph or greater this season, 10th best in the MLB. Here’s what Remarkable! says about each Twins hitter:
- Byron Buxton is batting .607 (17-for-28) on the first pitch of at-bats since the All-Star Break
- Max Kepler is batting just .120 (30-for-251) with two strikes this season (Rank: 144th of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .176).
- Miguel Sano is batting .467 (63-for-135) when ahead in the count since the start of 2016 (League Avg: .352).
- Joe Mauer is batting .267 (79-for-296) with two strikes this season (Rank: 2nd of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .176).
- Tale of two halves for Jorge Polanco:
| AVG | OBP | SLG | Well-Hit AVG | Chase% | |
| 1st Half | .224 | .270 | .323 | .106 | 27.7% |
| 2nd Half | .293 | .359 | .511 | .160 | 20.1% |
- Eddie Rosario’s power is missing against lefties
| Eddie Rosario | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| vs. LHP | .281 | .300 | .404 | .704 |
| vs. RHP | .295 | .347 | .642 | .989 |
Yankees
Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez are the two right-handed power bats in the Yankees lineup, but it is much deeper than that. Here’s what Remarkable! has to say about each hitter:
- Didi Gregorius has an OPS of just .466 (146 PAs) on pitches 94 mph or greater this season (Rank: 144th of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .759).
- Todd Frazier has a .207 BA vs. LHP and a .215 BA vs. RHP. Despite that, Frazier has an OPS of .883 vs. LHP and .736 vs. RHP.
- Starlin Castro is hitting .342 on Fastballs this season.
- Aaron Judge has an OPS of 1.974 (151 PAs) when the pitcher is behind in the count this season (Rank: 1st of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: 1.119).
- Gary Sanchez has pulled 57.7% of balls he’s put into play (205/355) this season (Rank: 1st of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: 45.1%).
- Brett Gardner has chased just 4.0% of pitches out of the zone (14/347) on the first pitch of at-bats this season (Rank: 3rd of 145 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: 15.1%).
- Aaron Hicks is slugging .727 (24 total bases in 33 ABs) on low fastballs this season (Rank: 8th of 176 part-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .444).
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