Cleveland’s remarkable 22-game winning streak ended at the hands of Kansas City last week. They’ve clinched the AL Central, but there is still something at stake for the Indians. They have a slim two-game lead on the Astros for home field advantage. They travel to Anaheim tonight to start a series with the Angels who are just one and a half games back of the surprising Minnesota Twins for the second Wild Card spot. The Angels won two out of three in a weekend series against the Texas Rangers, keeping pace with the Twins.
Let’s use Remarkable! to breakdown the pitching matchups for this three-game set:
GAME 1 CLEVINGER VS SKAGGS
CLEVINGER
Mike Clevinger has been a nice addition to a very impressive Indians rotation. After throwing 53 innings for the Tribe last year, Clevinger has reached 112 innings and has an impressive 10.2 K/9 to boot. Much of his success hinges on getting ahead in the count, which he’s done 70.7 percent of the time over the last 30 days, sixth best in baseball. Right-handed batters don’t stand much of a chance against him, as he’s allowed a .130 batting average against in the last 30 days, seventh best in the MLB. In his last four starts, he has not allowed a home run to the opposing team over 23 innings. Since the All-Star Break, batters have an OBP of just .182 against Clevinger. Facing Clevinger will be an uphill battle for the Angels, but Tyler Skaggs did put together a positive start in his last outing.
SKAGGS
Tyler Skaggs had his best performance of the year against the Houston Astros on Wednesday. He’s looking to repeat and help the Angels stay in the Wild Card race. Skaggs only allowed three singles his last time out, good for a slugging percentage against of .136 (3 TB/ 22 ABs). Skaggs throws his curveball 31 percent of the time, but he’s bumped it up to 43.3 percent over the last 30 days against left-handed batters. That curve is Skaggs’ bread and butter, as he’s recorded 47.2 percent of his strikeouts since the All-Star Break with the large looper. Limiting the damage is an important skill to have as a starting pitcher and Skaggs has mastered that recently by only allowing a .686 OPS when he’s behind in the count over the last 30 days, 15th best in the MLB.
GAME 2 TOMLIN VS NOLASCO
TOMLIN
A heavy dose of cutters will be in the near future for Angels hitters. Tomlin throws his cutter 36 percent of the time — the same amount as his fastball. Tomlin has gone at least five innings in each of his three starts since being activated from the DL. In those three starts, he’s only walked two of 62 batters (3.2 percent), 10th best in the MLB. Left-handed batters are having a particularly tough time against him. Lefties only have a .433 OPS against in his last three starts. Tomlin won’t overpower you with his fastball, as he averages 85.9 MPH, fourth slowest over the last 30 days. Tomlin’s recent success comes from his ability to get ahead in the count. Tomlin has thrown at least two strikes in the first three pitches of an AB 77.3 percent of the time over the last 30 days, fourth best in the MLB. Look for Tomlin to pepper the zone with his four-pitch mix.
NOLASCO
Ricky Nolasco gets the call for the Angels in game two of this three-game series. Nolasco may want to steer clear of his curveball and slider, as he’s allowed a .600 slugging percentage on those pitches over the last 30 days, fifth worst in the MLB. Opposing hitters kept the ball in the air against Nolasco in his last start. Nolasco only accumulated four groundballs in his last start, third fewest in the MLB. Despite some lackluster results this year, Nolasco is in a position to help the Angels make it into the playoffs.
GAME 3 SALAZAR VS BRIDWELL
SALAZAR
After a couple of DL stints and a short start September 5, Danny Salazar will toe the rubber in the final game against the Angels. Salazar has electric stuff, but he struggles on the first pitch of ABs. He’s allowed a slugging percentage of .941 on the first pitch of ABs this season, second worst in the MLB. Despite that high percentage, Salazar bears down with two strikes. Opponents are hitting .134 against Danny Salazar as a starter with two strikes this season, 11th best in the MLB. A lot of that success is due to a changeup that he throws 25 percent of the time. Salazar has recorded 35 of his 75 strikeouts to right-handed batters on that diving changeup.
BRIDWELL
Parker Bridwell toes the rubber for the Angels in the final game against the Indians. Bridwell has had an inconsistent season and only sports a 6.0 K/9. In his last start, Bridwell threw 79.2 percent off-speed pitches to left-handed batters. That pattern could continue after the success he had against the Rangers in that outing. Bridwell may want to avoid throwing the inside fastball as much as possible. Since the All-Star Break, he has allowed a .960 slugging percentage on inside fastballs, second worst in the MLB.
The game isn’t only about starting pitching. Here are some notes on hitters and relievers:
INDIANS HITTERS – THE TRIBE IS ALIVE
- Jose Ramirez has an OPS of 1.698 (41 PAs) on the road over the last 30 days (Rank: 1st of 164 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .724).
- Francisco Lindor is slugging .781 (50 total bases in 64 ABs) versus RHP over the last 30 days (Rank: 5th of 164 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .424).
- Carlos Santana is slugging .806 (29 total bases in 36 ABs) on non-fastballs over the last 30 days (Rank: 3rd of 155 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .368).
- Edwin Encarnacion is slugging .727 (24 total bases in 33 ABs) on the road over the last 30 days (Rank: 9th of 163 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .409).
CLEVELAND RELIEVERS – UNSUNG HEROES
- Cody Allen struck out 47.6% (20/42) of left-handed batters he faced since the All-Star Break (Rank: 6th of 183 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 22.8%).
- Dan Otero has allowed an OBP of .137 (7/51) vs right-handed batters since the All-Star Break (Rank: 2nd of 212 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .320).
- Nick Goody has walked 0 of 29 left-handed batters (0.0%) since the All-Star Break (Rank: Tied for 1st of 183 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 9.9%).
- Tyler Olson has allowed an OBP of .182 (6/33) vs left-handed batters since the All-Star Break (Rank: Tied for 8th of 183 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .328).
ANGELS HITTERS – POSITIVE TRADES
- Mike Trout has an OPS of .838 (129 PAs) with two strikes since the All-Star Break (Rank: 1st of 168 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .530).
- Justin Upton has an OBP of .463 (108 PAs) at home since the All-Star Break (Rank: 4th of 168 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: .334).
- Brandon Phillips has struck out 13 times in 166 PAs (7.8%) versus RHP since the All-Star Break (Rank: 2nd of 168 full-time hitters in MLB; League Avg: 21.8%).
ANGELS RELIEVERS – SILENCING OPPONENTS
- Blake Parker has allowed an OBP of .180 (16/89) since the All-Star Break (Rank: 2nd of 238 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .323).
- Yusmeiro Petit has allowed an OPS of .425 (111 PAs) since the All-Star Break (Rank: 7th of 251 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .730).
- Opponents are hitting .431 against Keynan Middleton (31-for-72) on pitches in the strike zone since the All-Star Break (Rank: 213th of 217 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .286)
- Cam Bedrosian has allowed a slugging percentage of .235 (12 Total Bases / 51 ABs) vs right-handed batters since the All-Star Break (Rank: Tied for 24th of 206 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .411).
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