Kansas City – New England Game Preview

by | Sep 7, 2017 | Football

We are finally here — the beginning of the 2017-2018 NFL season. Week one’s Thursday Night Football pits the New England Patriots, who are looking to defend their Super Bowl title, against the Kansas City Chiefs. We turned to Remarkable! to locate positives and negatives for each team that tell us who might have an edge in the game.

 

Alex Smith is often criticized by Chiefs fans for a lack of downfield throws; we can’t say we disagree. However, there is one target that Smith loves, and he looks to have a good match up tonight:

  • Alex Smith had just 2.18 seconds in the pocket per pass attempt (489 attempts) last season (NFL Rank: lowest of 31 Qualified QBs; League Avg: 2.48)
  • Smith had a passer rating of just 72.5 on 3rd down (130 Pass Attempts) last season (NFL Rank: 4th worst of 29 Qualified QBs; League Avg: 85.8)
  • Smith completed passes for 20+ yards on just 4 of his 71 total passing attempts (5.6%) on 3rd and long last season (NFL Rank: 3rd worst of 28 Qualified QBs; League Avg: 9.1%)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs were sacked on only 3.1% of pass attempts (4/128) against the blitz last season (NFL Rank: 2nd best of 32; League Avg: 7.9%)
  • Travis Kelce averaged 70.3 Receiving Yards per game (1,125/16) last season (NFL Rank: best of 35 Qualified TEs; League Avg: 25.3)
  • Kelce was targeted 18 times on plays in the red zone last season (NFL Rank: tied for 4th most among TEs)
  • Kansas City Chiefs WRs caught 187 of 288 passes (64.9% Reception Pct) last season (NFL Rank: 4th best of 32; League Avg: 59.9%)

Alex Smith got the ball out of his hand quickly last year, and the offensive line protected him against the blitz even when he looked downfield. Smith did not attempt downfield passes very often, and struggled on third down accordingly. Travis Kelce has proven his value at tight end and is leaned upon by Andy Reid’s offense. There is a question mark at running back with Spencer Ware, KC’s leading rusher from a year ago, out for the season, so we will have to see if rookie Kareem Hunt can handle the lead back role for the Chiefs.

 

 

News flash: the Patriots have a good offense. We expect more of the same this year with Tom Brady at the helm for the entire season. Here are some stats about the Patriots offense:

  • Tom Brady had a passer rating of 127.7 on 3rd down (123 Pass Attempts) last season (NFL Rank: best of 29 Qualified QBs; League Avg: 85.8)
  • Against the blitz last season, Brady threw 11 TDs on just 103 pass attempts (one TD every 9.4 Pass Attempts) (NFL Rank: best of 29 Qualified QBs; League Avg: 21.1)
  • Brady had no turnovers on 271 opportunities on the road last season (NFL Rank: best among QBs)
  • Brady had a passer rating of 123.9 against the blitz (103 Pass Attempts) last season (NFL Rank: best of 29 Qualified QBs; League Avg: 90.0)
  • Mike Gillislee averaged 6.1 Yards per Carry (182 yards/30 carries) on plays to the left side last season (NFL Rank: best of 40 Qualified RBs; League Avg: 4.2)
  • New England Patriots TEs averaged 15.4 Yards per Reception (1,263 yards/82 catches) last season (NFL Rank: best of 32; League Avg: 11.0)
  • Brandin Cooks averaged 14.3 Yards from Scrimmage Per Touch (1,203 yards / 84 touches) last season (NFL Rank: 5th best of 40 Qualified WRs; League Avg: 12.5)

Unlike Alex Smith, Tom Brady was superb on third down and just about every other situation last season. Brady’s revenge tour was a sight to see, and it ended with another ring on his finger. He has a new weapon in the backfield with Mike Gillislee, who comes over from their AFC East rival Buffalo Bills. Martellus Bennett is gone, but Rob Gronkowski is still a huge target for this offense. Remarkable! superstar Julian Edelman is out for the year, so the Pats will look to spread targets around to their emerging secondary pieces.

Here is what the Patriots will miss with Edelman on the sidelines:

  • Julian Edelman led NFL WRs with 11 tackles broken last season
  • Edelman had 98 receptions last season, 4th best among wide receivers
  • He proved his value on 3rd down with 24 catches going for first down last season (NFL Rank: 3rd best among WRs)

 

The Patriots offense is potent, so the Kansas City Chiefs D will have to come with their “A” game. Here are their strengths from a year ago:

    • The Chiefs defense allowed a passer rating of just 67.6 on plays in the red zone (93 Pass Attempts) last season (NFL Rank: best of 32; League Avg: 95.0)

  • The Chiefs defense averaged a turnover percentage of 5.8% (9 / 154) on plays in the red zone last season (NFL Rank: best of 32; League Avg: 2.0%)
  • The Chiefs defense allowed 333 Rushing Yards on 3rd down last season (NFL Rank: worst of 32)
  • The Chiefs defense allowed a Completion Pct of just 58.5% (350 completions/598 attempts) last season (NFL Rank: 2nd best of 32; League Avg: 63.0%)
  • The Chiefs defense allowed a passer rating of just 79.8 (598 Pass Attempts) last season (NFL Rank: 3rd best of 32; League Avg: 89.3)
  • The Chiefs defense allowed 15.1 Yards from Scrimmage Per Touch (906 yards / 60 touches) when blitzing last season (NFL Rank: 2nd worst of 32; League Avg: 12.7)
  • The Chiefs defense allowed 14.3 Yards per Completion (999 yards/70 completions) in close and late situations last season (NFL Rank: 2nd worst of 32; League Avg: 11.7)
  • Dee Ford had 10 sacks on plays out of the shotgun last season (NFL Rank: tied for 4th best among LBs)
  • The Chiefs intercepted 18 of 598 attempts (33.2 pass attempts per int.) last season (NFL Rank: 4th best of 32; League Avg: 44.1)

The Chiefs shut down the opposition in the air last year so they look to get off on the right foot this year against a high flying attack.

 

The Patriots defense was impressive in its own right and is often overshadowed by the offense. Here’s how they stacked up last year:

  • The Patriots defense led the league in points against last year, surrendering just 15.5 points/game; league Avg: 21.5
  • Patrick Chung allowed receptions to receivers he was covering on 50 of 71 targets (70.4%) last season (NFL Rank: 3rd worst of 73 Qualified DBs; League Avg: 61.2%)
  • Malcolm Butler allowed receptions to receivers he was covering on just 41 of 81 targets (50.6%) on plays out of the shotgun last season (NFL Rank: 8th best of 67 Qualified DBs; League Avg: 60.8%)
  • The Patriots defense allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 32 of 365 carries (8.8%) last season (NFL Rank: 4th best of 32; League Avg: 11.4%)
  • The Patriots defense allowed just 3.9 Yards per Carry (1,420 yards/365 carries) last season (NFL Rank: 5th best of 32; League Avg: 4.3)

Featuring a strong front seven, the Patriots did not allow much on the ground or where it really matters, the scoreboard. Patrick Chung gave up plenty of receptions, but it seems as if that’s the only glaring weak spot. He will have his hands full tonight against Travis Kelce.

 

It’s strength versus strength in tonight’s NFL kickoff. Let’s see who prevails.

 

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