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Sometimes the difference between a good season and a great season boils down to the little things you do — or don’t do. The AFC West could come down to which team takes care of the details this season.
We took a look at each team in the AFC West and found a handful of statistics that could be a harbinger of their season, a canary in the coalmine that is their season. Let’s take a look.
DENVER BRONCOS
As the saying goes, it is not how you start, it’s how you finish. In the NFL it is especially important to finish games strong offensively, especially when the strength of your team is defense. The Denver Broncos wide receivers fumbled five (5) times in the 4th quarter last season, most in the NFL.
For perspective, the league average for fourth-quarter fumbles by wide receivers is one. Handing over five possessions is difficult to overcome and can easily derail your season. Watch to see how Denver takes care of the ball in the fourth quarter. The Broncos defense allowed a passer rating of just 60.8 in short yardage situations (58 Pass Attempts) last season (NFL Rank: 2nd of 32; League Avg: 105.0).
More remarkable notes…
Broncos WRs fumbled 5 times in the 4th quarter last season (NFL Rank: 32nd of 32; League Avg: 1)
The Broncos defense allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 32 of 552 attempts (5.8%) last season (NFL Rank: 1st of 32; League Avg: 8.7%)
The Broncos defense allowed first downs on just 26.2% of plays last season (NFL Rank: 1st of 32; League Avg: 30.0%)
Trevor Siemian averaged 15.2 Yards per Completion (852 yards/56 completions) in close and late situations last season (NFL Rank: 2nd of 35 Qualified QBs; League Avg: 11.7)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Conversely, when your offense is in a tough spot, it is important to not make a bad situation worse or put the defense in a tough position. Last season, with over 10 yards to go, Alex Smith was not intercepted in 67 pass attempts.
Spencer Ware averaged 6.0 Yards from Scrimmage Per Touch (824 yards / 137 touches) on 1st down last season (NFL Rank: 3rd of 30 Qualified RBs; League Avg: 4.7)
Travis Kelce averaged 70.3 Receiving Yards per game (1,125/16) last season (NFL Rank: 1st of 35 Qualified TEs; League Avg: 25.3)
Alex Smith threw deep balls on just 8.7% of pass attempts (23/263) on the road last season (NFL Rank: 25th of 29 Qualified QBs; League Avg: 11.6%)
Dee Ford had 10 sacks on plays out of the shotgun last season (NFL Rank: 4th among LBs)
Alex Smith was not intercepted (67 pass attempts) with over 10 yards to go last season (NFL Rank: 1st of 35 Qualified QBs; League Avg: 40.3)
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
While taking care of the ball is critically important to giving your team a chance to win, having a go-to play that you can count on to keep the ball moving downfield can be demoralizing to opponents. Philip Rivers completed 81.8% of passes on slant routes last season making that play close to unstoppable for the Chargers. The league average was 66.7% which means that Rivers is significantly better than the average quarterback at moving the ball on slants.
Tyrell Williams averaged 17.2 Yards per Reception (603 yards/35 catches) on 64 targets on the road last season (NFL Rank: 1st of 37 Qualified WRs; League Avg: 12.6)
Despite missing the first four games, Joey Bosa had eight sacks on plays out of the shotgun last season (NFL Rank: 7th among DLs)
Philip Rivers completed 81.8% of passes (36 completions/44 attempts) on slant routes last season (NFL Rank: 1st of 27 Qualified QBs; League Avg: 66.7%)
Hunter Henry had 11 receptions on plays in the red zone last season (NFL Rank: 3rd among TEs)
Melvin Gordon rushed for 501 yards on plays up the middle last season (NFL Rank: 2nd among RBs)
OAKLAND RAIDERS
Similar to Alex Smith, Derek Carr kept his defense out of tough positions last season. He was not intercepted on 3rd and long (7 yards to go or more) in 88 pass attempts, more than two and a half times as many attempts as the league average (best in the NFL).
Controlling the ball, the clock, and field position is a difficult combination to beat. Small things, like not turning the ball over on 3rd and long, can be difference-making.
Michael Crabtree dropped 12 balls last season (NFL Rank: 2nd most among WRs)
Derek Carr threw 10 TDs on just 130 pass attempts (one TD every 13.0 Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter last season (NFL Rank: 2nd of 29 Qualified QBs; League Avg: 22.3)
The Raiders defense sacked opposing QBs on just 22.3% of pass attempts (25/112) on plays where the Raiders pressured the QB last season (NFL Rank: 31st of 32; League Avg: 31.7%)
Derek Carr was not intercepted (88 pass attempts) on 3rd and long last season (NFL Rank: 1st of 28 Qualified QBs; League Avg: 34.5)
The Oakland Raiders were sacked on just 3.0% of pass attempts (18/596) last season (NFL Rank: Lowest of 32; League Avg: 6.1%)
Our bet, the team that emerges from the AFC West will do the little things to limit turnovers. Stay tuned.
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