2025 World Series – A Look Into Championship Win Probability Added

Saying the 2025 World Series was the best series of baseball ever seen might not be too far from the truth. While the season is over, it is hard not to think about every little minuscule detail about the final games, final moments, and final pitches in this 7-game classic.

Before we get into the 2025 World Series, let’s take a look at what Championship Win Probability Added (cWPA) is. cWPA calculates the increase in probability of winning the World Series. For example, when Bill Mazeroski hit his historic walk off home run in Game 7 of the 1960 World Series, he added 36.7% cWPA in a single swing. cWPA takes into account all events that change the win probability in a given game and then they are added up. If a game is 7-0 after the top of the 1st inning and the pitcher throws a no-hitter, that would be a very low win probability added game. A good example of that is Game 3 of the 1960 World Series. The Yankees scored six runs in the first inning and four more in the fourth. The Pirates totaled just four hits in the game. Below is the chart from Baseball Reference showing the win probability for the Yankees and Pirates in that game.

How about we look at a game with a high cWPA? Below is the win probability chart for Game 6 of the 2011 World Series. We see a lot of peaks and valleys with a lot of shifts with a high win probability for the Rangers and then the Cardinals (and David Freese). This game was the 9th highest cWPA in all of history.

The 2025 World Series had the highest cWPA of any World Series in history. We saw 57 plays in the seven games that shifted the win probability at least five percentage points, most in any World Series. We have labeled those plays with a cWPA of at least 5% as ‘Big Plays’.

Two reasons why this World Series accounted for the most cWPA in history is the back and forth affair in Game 7 and the 18-inning stalemate in Game 3. Game 7 is the 2nd highest cWPA in World Series history and Game 3 is the 13th highest.

When it comes to an individual, Yoshinobu Yamamoto had one of the all time World Series runs. He recorded three wins in the World Series and pitched in back-to-back games, something rarely done after throwing 90 pitches the day prior. He recorded the 4th best cWPA ever and joined Madison Bumgarner as the only other pitch this century with a cWPA over 50%.

We’ve talked about the series, the games, and the players. Now, it is time to look at the biggest moments in Game 7 and where they rank all time. Game 7 in 2025 has three of the top-10 highest cWPA moments in World Series history. The final double play to end Game 7 ranks as the 4th highest cWPA and the Will Smith solo home run to give the Dodgers the lead is right behind it. Miguel Rojas’ solo home run to tie the game with one out in the 9th inning comes in as the 10th highest cWPA in World Series history.